Modeling of Coronavirus Spread in Morocco using Statistical Approach: SIR Model

  • Elhoucein LAYATI Laboratory of Landscape dynamics, Risks and Heritage, University of Sultan of Moulay Slimane
  • Abdellah Ouigmane Team of Agro-Industrial and Environmental Processes/Team of Applied Spectro-Chemometry and Environment, University of Sultan of Moulay Slimane, Beni Mellal, Morocco
  • Omar Ouhsine Team of Applied Spectro-Chemometry and Environment. University of Sultan Moulay Slimane, Beni Mellal, Morocco
  • Abdelaziz Moujane Team of Ecology and Sustainable Development, Department of Life Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology, Sultan Moulay Slimane University, BP 523, 23000 Béni Mellal, Morocco.
  • Marcelo de Carvalho Alves Department of Agricultural Engineering at the Federal University of Lavras, University Campus, P.O.Box 3037, 37200-000, Lavras, Minas Gerais, Brazil
  • Bagyaraj Murugesan Department of Geology, College of Natural and Computational Sciences, Debre Berhan University, P.O.Box 445, Debre Berhan, Ethiopia
  • Anirudh V. Mutalik Associate Professor, Dept of Preventive and Social Medicine, KMCH Institute of Health Sciences and Research, Coimbatore. India
  • Mohamed El Ghachi Laboratory of Landscape dynamics, Risks and Heritage, University of Sultan of Moulay Slimane, Beni Mellal, Morocco
Keywords: Covid-19, Morocco, SIR model, Basic reproduction number

Abstract

The recently emerged Covid-19 virus has caused more than 65,872,391 infections and 1,523, 656 deaths up to December 8, 2020 worldwide. The disease continues to spread in all countries. The use of mathematical models in public health plays an important role in many aspects, such as rapid visualization of epidemiological information, monitoring, forecasting and estimating the spread of disease, and assisting in decision-making on pandemic prevention and control. The objective of this study is to show the role of SIR model in predicting the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Moroccan kingdom and to estimate the time necessary for its disappearance. Thus, the results found following the use of the SIR model are almost similar to the results obtained by the Minister of Health in Morocco, so far we notice the rapid spread of this disease and 13August 2021, the Covid-19 will be 0 confirmed cases. Thus, the calculation of the basic reproduction number R0 gave a value of 2.003 which shows that the number of infected people does not stop increasing until a vaccine for this virus is found. In this case, the respect of the rules of hygiene and containment can lower the value of R0 and the spread of pandemic.

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Published
2021-03-29
How to Cite
LAYATI, E., Ouigmane, A., Ouhsine, O., Moujane, A., de Carvalho Alves, M., Murugesan, B., V. Mutalik, A., & El Ghachi, M. (2021). Modeling of Coronavirus Spread in Morocco using Statistical Approach: SIR Model. Journal of Environmental Treatment Techniques, 9(3), 594-600. https://doi.org/10.47277/JETT/9(3)600
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